When/if the boat sinks etc

**peter24a** · 02-11-2003, 10:10 PM

Okay....here is my last coment on the financing issue. Of course it makes sence to use anothers money if the rate is lower than what you can earn. And zero is always less than you could earn....unless you have invested in something risky (which may be why you were anticipating a 10% annual yield). It sounds like you are alluding to the ailing stock market and you are questioning whether things will be better in six months. I'm no stock market guru but there is not a lot of clairty in the markets right now. My concern, if it were me, would be that if that investment I have in the market turns downward in which case I would have been better to pay for the car now. The only surefire way to come out ahead by using someone elses money to purchase an asset that unfortunately will depreciate (yes even a Volvo will) is to have a guaranteed return on your own money (like in a C.D.).

I still have yet to be offered long term (say 4 years or more that it typically takes to pay for a car) zero percent interest from my credit card. If you do then you have a lot more time for the markets to recover and your investments to soar. But if the money is cheap for only six months or so that would make me nervous as to how I would pay for the car six months from now if my nest egg falls further.

Obviously all of my comments need to be tweeked based on your financial condition and risk tolerance. My commnets are geared to a more conservative investor who typically has a significant portion of his portfolio in cash (in this market).

I too spend most of my days considering various scenarios for my clients (mortgages), the what ifs, the worst case and best case scenrios. So I appreciate your comments about how you analyze things. And especially if you take the boat sinking part out of your quesiton your analysis is especially appropriate. I hope you find my comments a little more helpful this time.

Peter

**barrysharp** · 02-11-2003, 10:39 PM

Peter:

Thanks for those words -- very arresting. You hit it right on the money, so to speak, about what if things get worse in say six months -- my wife said the same thing to me -- and she's far more pragmatic about these things than me, and she is nearly always right

**rkestner** · 02-13-2003, 05:39 AM

interesting reading!
two themes seem to run through the thread but are not explicit.

1/  risk.  financing shares the risk?  always a good thing?
2/  it is a 'borrowers' market right now with cheap money available.

given these two themes.  wouldn't it seem to indicate the smart thing to do is find the cheapest money and finance everything?

bottom line:  if you can predict where rates/market/boat will be in 3/6 months, you are worth a lot of money.

**Low Tide** · 02-13-2003, 08:43 AM

rkestner-

That's my line of thought- adding that OSD purchases in particular have a little reduced risk in many ways in the "worst-case scenario."

We all paid less for the car to begin with, and given the inherent new car depreciation rate, we can still sell it and lose less (prehaps none) if the bottom falls out.  Look at the used 2002 market right now.  I didn't pay that much for the new 2003.

**hordtheviking** · 02-27-2003, 07:57 AM

If anyone is interested, here are some interesting pics of the car carrier in question, Wilhemsen's Tricolor, including one showing some V70's onboard (obviously a file photo). I'm looking at this from a statistical point of view as a potentially good thing, I mean, I'm sad that the companies in question lost all of this equipment and money, but it's a little like Robin Williams in "The World According to Garp" saying he'd buy the house he was looking at after the airplane flew into it because the odds of that happening again were nill. I'm guessing the odds of Wilhemsen losing two ships in 4 months are something close to zero especially since they move 1.5 million cars a year and this is the first serious loss in quite some time that I've heard of. All the same I'm knocking on wood as I write this.

Pictures of the sunken Wilhemsen "Tricolor"

**hordtheviking** · 03-22-2003, 08:42 AM

FYI, I heard from Claes at the Volvo Factory that they've decided now to cut up this enormous ship and remove it in chunks which should be a hell of a project considering how big it is and how many cars are on board.

Apparently it's too close to the surface and has already been hit twice so it has to go.

**AutoMonkey** · 07-24-2003, 08:43 AM

Thought I'd revive this old thread... here's an article from the British Guardian newspaper about raising the aforementioned ship. There's a text page and a nice Flash presentation...

The Tricolor Salvage Operation

Enjoy!

AM