That is almost certainly what happens. The transmission seal around the transmission output shaft is likey bad where the mating collar between the bevel gear and tranny slide over the splines. I have my bevel gear out and there is not other lace it could be coming from. There is no fluid in a cavity behind that bolt. Me, until it gets really bad I would just keep checking the fluid level. You have to pull the bevel gear to change that seal and although it is not difficult it is time consuming.....if you do, change the axle seal on the transmission output shaft, and the sister seal around the collar on the bevel gear side....
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